Hey Fam,
I’ve got a scenario for you…
You’re in a strategic meeting. Everyone is looking to you for direction or input.
That’s when your brain does its thing - spinning up scenarios, calculating risks, mapping out contingencies...
And suddenly you’re so deep in the chess game of possibilities that you can’t make a move at all.
Sound familiar?
Analysis creates paralysis.
At some point, you've got to let your preparation meet the moment and trust yourself to act.
Here’s the truth:
Strategic thinking isn’t about seeing every possible move.
It’s about seeing the right moves at the right time.
As my strategy mentor once told me: “The goal isn’t to predict the future perfectly. It’s to be prepared for the futures that matter.”
But overthinking isn’t just common - it’s contagious. So many of us have been conditioned to believe that more analysis always equals better decisions.
It’s Kind of a Big Deal
Because:
Analysis paralysis kills momentum
Perfect predictions are impossible
Opportunities have expiration dates
Decision quality peaks before information quality
Action creates clarity faster than analysis
The good news?
You can think ahead without getting stuck in the maze of possibilities.
Let me show you my MOVES framework for strategic thinking without overthinking:
M - Map the critical paths
O - Optimize for optionality
V - Validate assumptions quickly
E - Evaluate tradeoffs
S - Set decision triggers
Let’s get it:
M - Map the critical paths
Focus on the paths that matter most:
Identify decision points: Map out where big choices must be made and what info you’ll need at each point.
Track dependencies: List the sequence of events that must happen for each major scenario to play out.
Flag non-negotiables: Be clear about must-haves vs nice-to-haves.
O - Optimize for optionality
Keep your future moves flexible:
Create buffers: Build in resources and time margins that allow for course correction.
Design reversible decisions: Distinguish between one-way and two-way doors in your planning.
Maintain multiple paths: Don’t let early commitments close off important future options.
V - Validate assumptions quickly
Test your assumptions fast:
Run micro-experiments: Design small tests that give you quick feedback on your assumptions.
Find leading indicators: Identify early signals that will confirm or challenge your thinking.
Use proxy data: Look for existing data that will validate your assumptions without you having to build from scratch.
E - Evaluate tradeoffs
Make deliberate choices:
Define your currencies: Be clear about what you’re willing to trade (time, money, risk, etc.).
Set your non-negotiables: Establish what you won’t compromise on.
Compare opportunity costs: Consider not just what each option costs, but what it prevents you from doing.
S - Set decision triggers
Create action points:
Define decision criteria upfront: Establish what will trigger different decisions.
Set time boundaries: Give yourself deadlines for big decisions to avoid analysis paralysis.
Create action thresholds: What metrics or events will trigger each move?
DOWNLOAD AVAILABLE
Strategic Thinking Checklist: Moving Forward Without Analysis Paralysis
Let’s See This In Action:
You’re considering entering a new market segment.
Wrong approach:
“Let’s analyze every possible scenario and competitor response before we move.”
MOVES approach:
M: Map out the three factors that will determine success in the new segment
O: Create a pilot that can scale up or down
V: Validate market response with a minimum viable product
E: Define resource commitment vs potential return
S: Set decision triggers (e.g., Define go/no-go criteria; Set timeline triggers)
Boom. You’ve just turned overthinking into action.
Gif by pbsnewshour on Giphy
POLL
What’s your biggest strategic thinking challenge?
LEVEL UP
Here's your 7-day strategic thinking challenge:
Day 1: M - Map out the critical path for your biggest decision today
Day 2: O - Identify three ways to create buffers in your plans
Day 3: V - Design a micro-experiment to test your biggest assumption
Day 4: E - List all the tradeoffs in your current strategy
Day 5: S - Set decision triggers for your next big move
Day 6: M + V - Make a strategic decision
Day 7: Full MOVES framework on an upcoming decision
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CURATED ROUNDUP
Essential Links
Book: “Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick” by Chris Bradley
Article: “The Dangers of Overthinking” - Eva M. Krockow
Video: “What is Strategic Thinking” - Mike Gastin
Get an earful of soft skills development when on the go with Blinkist.
Remember: Strategy isn’t about predicting everything.
It’s about being prepared for what matters most while being able to adapt to what you can’t predict.
That’s it for this week.
Thanks for reading. Be easy!
Girvin 🫡
P.S. What’s your best way to avoid analysis paralysis? Reply and share.
P.S.S. If you ask people what soft skills are and which is most important, you may get different answers. Here’s my take.
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